# Research Methodology ## Project Overview This research project analyzes and verifies claims made across 6 essays by Alexander Campbell from his Substack "Campbell Ramble" (https://www.campbellramble.ai). ## Research Questions 1. What are the main arguments and theses across these essays? 2. Which factual claims can be verified or refuted? 3. How consistent is the argumentation across essays? 4. What are the strengths and weaknesses of the evidence presented? ## Methodology ### Phase 1: Collection & Summary **Process:** - Fetch each essay using WebFetch - Create comprehensive summaries capturing: - Main thesis - Key arguments - Supporting evidence - Conclusions - Store in `/essays/` directory **Output:** 6 essay summary files ### Phase 2: Claim Extraction **Process:** - Review all summaries - Extract verifiable factual claims including: - Statistical assertions (e.g., "AI will use 8-12% of U.S. electricity by 2030") - Historical claims (e.g., dates, events, timelines) - Economic data (e.g., GDP figures, trade statistics) - Geopolitical assertions (e.g., military capabilities, policy positions) - Categorize claims by domain - Prioritize claims by importance to main arguments **Output:** Categorized claim files in `/claims/` ### Phase 3: Verification **Process:** For each claim: 1. Research using web search and authoritative sources 2. Document findings with the following structure: ``` ## Claim: [Statement] **Source:** [Essay name and context] **Status:** [Verified/Partially Verified/Unverified/Contradicted] **Confidence:** [High/Medium/Low] ### Evidence Found: - [Source 1 with URL] - [Source 2 with URL] ### Analysis: [Discussion of whether evidence supports, contradicts, or is ambiguous about the claim] ### Notes: [Additional context, caveats, or observations] ``` **Sources prioritized:** - Government data (BLS, Census, official statistics) - Academic research and journals - Reputable news organizations - Think tanks and policy institutions - Primary documents when available **Output:** Individual verification files in `/verification/` ### Phase 4: Synthesis & Analysis **Process:** - Compare verified vs. unverified claims - Identify patterns across essays - Note logical consistency or contradictions - Assess overall evidentiary strength - Document open questions **Output:** Analysis documents in `/analysis/` ## Verification Standards ### Verified - Claim supported by multiple authoritative sources - Data matches or is within reasonable margin of cited figures - Context aligns with claim ### Partially Verified - Core claim supported but details differ - Sources provide related but not identical data - Claim true in some contexts but not universally ### Unverified - No sources found supporting claim - Insufficient information to determine accuracy - Sources exist but are ambiguous ### Contradicted - Authoritative sources directly contradict the claim - Data significantly differs from assertion - Context reveals misrepresentation ## Limitations - Web search may not capture all relevant academic research - Some claims may be predictions or interpretations not subject to verification - Time constraints may limit depth of research on all claims - Access to paywalled sources may be limited ## Documentation Standards - All claims linked to source essay - All verification includes URLs to sources - Dates noted for time-sensitive claims - Ambiguities and uncertainties clearly stated - Regular commits to track research progress